폐업지원제가 한우 사육두수에 미치는 영향 분석

Abstract

This paper analyzes how the subsidy for closing farms affected the number of Hanwoo breeding herds using ARIMA model. To build a estimation model, we use a bio-behavioral system based on birth rates and slaughter rates. This study sets up three time series models to estimate and capture the effect of subsidy program for closing farms in Hanwoo industry. The main differences among three models depends on which variable of female cow slaughter rate is used. This paper compares the actual numbers and predicted estimates and calculates the effect of the subsidy program. To testify the statistical significance of the results, we use dummy variable in time series models and economic models. The results show that the calf birthrate is significantly decreased about 4 to 8 percent point by the subsidy for closing farms. However, the female cow slaughter rate is not statistically significant.