NORTH KOREA MISSILE: Past, Present and Future

Abstract

North Korea has launched a number of missile tests and developed different kinds of missiles. As you know, a ballistic missile can be used as a means for Weapons of Mass Destruction(WMD) by flying most of the flight time outside the atmosphere at high speeds. Due to its flight characteristic, it is difficult to estimate and predict the trajectory of the end-stage flight. In addition, there are technical difficulties in terms of defense. These ballistic missile threats are continuing to be developed since more than 25 countries are in possession of ballistic missiles, such as silos, transportable chemicals, biological or nuclear weapons. After the end of the Cold War, Third World states started to possess some forms of ballistic missiles. That has created a serious security threat, and in particular, the development of North Korean nuclear capabilities and WMD which are threats to Northeast Asian security. Moreover, the participation of Third World states in missile development and technology has been significantly increased. For instance, North Korea's rocket technology is reached at a certain level. And, in December 2012, the satellites of Taepodong-3, a 10,000-km-class ICBM rocket, were orbited. As a result, these threats have now become a global security threat, including to the United States and out of Northeast Asia. Through its experience in developing ballistic missiles over the last three decades, it is true that North Korea has technological limitations, such as reentry technology and miniaturization of nuclear warheads. North Korea conducted the fourth nuclear test with “test hydrogen” in January 2016 and conducted the sixth nuclear test with the “hydrogen bomb for intercontinental ballistic missile(ICBM)” in September 2017. In his 2018 New Year’s Speech, Kim Jong Un announced the “historic accomplishment of completing our nuclear capabilities.” In July and November of the same year, he “successfully” fired the ICBM tests. After all, Kim Jong Un declared "the achievement of the historical cause of the nation's nuclear armed forces and the achievement of the rocket-powered nation" to the world. In the context of this situation, we should analyze North Korea’s ballistic missiles technological level and prospect in near future. Especially, since North Korea had tried to accomplish nuclear experiment and SLBM/ICBM launch, it is very important to evaluate North Korea’s missiles technology and limitations and prospect North Korea’s next action. In order to complement technological problems, North Korea has secured continuous technology both domestically and internationally. I will make an effort to analyze North Korean technological problems. Lastly, we prospect that North Korea will cease all nuclear and ICBM testing and open to dialogue with the modes of negotiation. However, at the same time, there are some contradictions that prospect it will continue to pursue nuclear and missile capabilities by buying more time. In this context, my report will briefly assess North Korea's military behavior.