Comprehensive risk assessment between spatial urban characteristics and secondary seismic risk factors including structural-water supply aspects in South Korea

Abstract

As urbanization accelerates worldwide, critical infrastructure is increasingly concentrated in urban areas, and maintaining existing aging systems is becoming more challenging. At the same time, the risk of seismic events is rising. Seismic events are natural disasters that can cause massive losses in a short period of time. When they occur in or near densely populated cities, they can result in even greater damage than in the past. In this study, a comprehensive seismic risk assessment model was developed to address the risk of such seismic damage. In addition to the commonly used risk factors such as building, fire, and evacuation risks, a water supply system factor specifically, the risk of water supply disconnection (water outage) which has not been previously included, was incorporated into the model. The risk assessment model was applied to Jeonju City, a city in South Korea, and the results were analyzed and evaluated. Among the findings, it was revealed that the risk of water outages is significant even in the case of smaller seismic events. As urban systems continue to expand, the seismic damage risk assessment model developed in this study, which incorporates the water supply system, will prove to be highly valuable.