Predictive durability modeling of solid oxide fuel cells under maritime environmental conditions

Abstract

This study proposes a predictive durability modeling framework for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) operating under realistic maritime environmental conditions. A mechanistic reaction–diffusion degradation model was first calibrated via Bayesian inference against accelerated coastal and open‐sea experimental durability data. Subsequently, the calibrated model was employed to simulate long-term performance under high humidity, salt‐spray, and vibration stresses characteristic of marine service. The experimental results demonstrate that coastal exposure accelerates voltage decay by approximately 0.35 % per 1,000 h—nearly twice the rate observed in open‐sea conditions—and predicts a 10 % voltage drop after 18,200 h of operation in coastal scenarios. Model predictions align within 5 % of experimental measurements, validating the accuracy of the framework. Sensitivity analysis highlights the dominant role of interconnect oxidation and chromium poisoning in lifetime reduction. This predictive tool enables the quantification of SOFC degradation pathways and supports the development of targeted materials coatings and maintenance schedules for reliable shipboard power systems.