Transmission risks of respiratory infectious diseases in various confined spaces: A meta-analysis for future pandemics

Abstract

Background: If the different transmission risks of respiratory infectious diseases according to the type of confined space and associated factors could be discovered, this kind of information will be an important basis for devising future quarantine policies. However, no comprehensive systematic review or meta-analysis for this topic exists. Objective: The objective of this study is to analyze different transmission risks of respiratory infectious diseases according to the type of confined space. This information will be an important basis for devising future quarantine policies. Methods: A medical librarian searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library (until December 01, 2020). Results: A total of 147 articles were included. The risk of transmission in all types of confined spaces was approximately 3 times higher than in open space (combined RR, 2.95 (95% CI 2.62-3.33)). Among them, school or workplace showed the highest transmission risk (combined RR, 3.94 (95% CI 3.16-4.90)). Notably, in the subanalysis for SARS-CoV-2, residential space and airplane were the riskiest space (combined RR, 8.30 (95% CI 3.30-20.90) and 7.30 (95% CI 1.15-46.20), respectively). Discussion: Based on the equation of the total number of contacts, the order of transmission according to the type of confined space was calculated. The calculated order was similar to the observed order in this study. The transmission risks in confined spaces can be lowered by reducing each component of the aforementioned equation. However, as seen in the data for SARS-CoV-2, the closure of one type of confined space could increase the population density in another confined space. The authority of infection control should consider this paradox. Appropriate quarantine measures targeted for specific types of confined spaces with a higher risk of transmission, school or workplace for general pathogens, and residential space/airplane for SARS-CoV-2 can reduce the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases.