미국의 대선 후보자별 통상정책과 對미수출전략에 관한 연구: 상무부 예산안의 텍스트 마이닝을 중심으로

Abstract

The outcome of this year’s U.S. presidential election could lead to changes in the business environment of Korean export companies from a mid- to long-term perspective starting in 2025. In particular, Korea’s economic structure is highly dependent on foreign trade. So it is necessary to take a preemptive approach for Korean companies to establishing export strategies to the United States before the November presidential election. This study aims to present a new perspective on the impact of changes in U.S. trade policy on Korean companies by conducting text mining of unstructured data found in the department of commerce budget. The analyzed budgets are FY2021, which served as the preparatory budget for Trump’s second term in office and FY2024, reflecting Biden’s second term. The findings reveal that both Trump and Biden share similar trade policy orientations to strengthen their deterrence against China and protect domestic industries. However there were differences between the two candidates on climate change response. And Biden was more proactive stance than Trump on supply chain-related matters. Based on this, this study seek to provide a strategic guidance for Korea companies to preemptively address opportunities and threats related to exports to the U.S. taking into account the divergent approaches of each candidate.