감염자 행동 시나리오와 Wells-Riley Equation를 이용한 감염재생산지수 예측 가능성에 대한 탐색적 연구

Abstract

This study proposed and reviewed a method for calculating the infection reproduction index using a behavior pattern scenario of an infected person and the Wells-Riley equation. Accordingly, the real-time reproduction number was calculated assuming the daily behavior pattern scenario of infected office workers. As a result, the results of calculating the change in real-time infection reproduction number using the model suggested in this study show similar patterns to the value of infection cases in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk region using Cori’s methodology in previous studies. Based on this, it is thought that the reproduction number can be roughly calculated by using Wells-Riley equation and behavioral pattern scenario of infector. However, due to the limited data available through domestic research literature, a comparative review was conducted at the level of a simple snapshot. Therefore, there is a limitation in that additional verification is needed to generalize the research results in the future. In addition, in future research, we plan to conduct research on various topics, such as improving this model, supplementing input conditions, and building standard people model.