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A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industryopen accessA novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry

Other Titles
A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry
Authors
Kwon, JanghanPark, SunghwaKim, TaeilKim, Hanna
Issue Date
Dec-2023
Publisher
Korean Association of Shipping and Logistics, Inc.
Keywords
Business cycle; Coincident indicator; Composite indicator; Cyclical fluctuation characteristics; Cyclical turning points; Generalized dynamic factor model; Korea; Shipping industry
Citation
Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, v.39, no.4, pp 16 - 25
Pages
10
Indexed
SCOPUS
ESCI
KCI
Journal Title
Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics
Volume
39
Number
4
Start Page
16
End Page
25
URI
https://scholarworks.gnu.ac.kr/handle/sw.gnu/68772
DOI
10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.10.002
ISSN
2092-5212
2352-4871
Abstract
The aim of this study is to construct monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the shipping industry in Korea. The coincident and the leading indicators are computed using the generalized dynamic factor model. We use the production index of the water transport industry as the reference variable and compute the coincident indicator based on the common component of eight economic indicators. The analysis shows that the Korean shipping industry went through four business cycles during the sample period from 2007M1 to 2021M5. The leading indicator provides early signals of turning points in business cycles with a high correlation. The results suggest that the business cycle indicators present in this study may be useful diagnostic tools for understanding the timely and frequent economic state of the Korean shipping industry and its likely development in the near future. © 2023 The Authors
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