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Cited 2 time in webofscience Cited 5 time in scopus
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Development and External Validation of Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer Using Two Nationwide Databases: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP)open access

Authors
Kang, Jae SeungMok, LydiaHeo, Jin SeokHan, In WoongShin, Sang HyunYoon, Yoo-SeokHan, Ho-SeongHwang, Dae WookLee, Jae HoonLee, Woo JungPark, Sang JaePark, Joon SeongKim, YonghoonLee, HuisongYu, Young-DongYang, Jae DoLee, Seung EunPark, Il YoungJeong, Chi-YoungRoh, YounghoonKim, Seong-RyongMoon, Ju IkLee, Sang KuonKim, Hee JoonLee, SeungyeounKim, HongbeomKwon, WooilLim, Chang-SupJang, Jin-YoungPark, Taesung
Issue Date
Nov-2021
Publisher
EDITORIAL OFFICE GUT & LIVER
Keywords
Pancreatic neoplasms; Survival; Prognosis
Citation
GUT AND LIVER, v.15, no.6, pp.912 - 921
Indexed
SCIE
SCOPUS
KCI
Journal Title
GUT AND LIVER
Volume
15
Number
6
Start Page
912
End Page
921
URI
https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/gnu/handle/sw.gnu/3071
DOI
10.5009/gnl20306
ISSN
1976-2283
Abstract
Background/Aims: Several prediction models for evaluating the prognosis of nonmetastatic resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have been developed, and their performances were reported to be superior to that of the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. We developed a prediction model to evaluate the prognosis of resected PDAC and externally validated it with data from a nationwide Korean database. Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were utilized for model development, and data from the Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP) database were used for external validation. Potential candidate variables for model development were age, sex, histologic differentiation, tumor location, adjuvant chemotherapy, and the AJCC 8th staging system T and N stages. For external validation, the concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were evaluated. Results: Between 2004 and 2016, data from 9,624 patients were utilized for model development, and data from 3,282 patients were used for external validation. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, age, sex, tumor location, T and N stages, histologic differentiation, and adjuvant chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for resected PDAC. After an exhaustive search and 10-fold cross validation, the best model was finally developed, which included all prognostic variables. The C-index, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year time-dependent AUCs were 0.628, 0.650, 0.665, 0.675, and 0.686, respectively. Conclusions: The survival prediction model for resected PDAC could provide quantitative survival probabilities with reliable performance. External validation studies with other nationwide databases are needed to evaluate the performance of this model.
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