환율전가를 감안한 환율의 무역수지 효과

Abstract

The Influence of the exchange rates on the trade balance is well known asMarshall-Lerner condition that assumes a perfect exchange rate pass-through, the impact ofthe exchange rate on export and import prices. In this paper, we analyzed the effect of theexchange rates on the trade balance in the case that the exchange rate pass-through isincomplete. Using the cointegration analysis methods, the effects of exchange rates on the trade balancebetween South Korea and her 33 trading partners were analysed. In the case of the bilateraltrade balance with 13 countries, the effect of the nominal exchange rate was positive, but inthe case of 5 countries it was negative, and in the cases of other 15 countries, it was insignificant.