Reliability Assessment and Outage Cost of the Korean Power System Using the Probabilistic Simulation Considering Natural Disaster

Abstract

This paper evaluates the reliability and outage cost of the Korean power system considering the natural disaster incident in the Gyeongju and Yeonggwang areas. It includes the probabilistic reliability assessment simulation of an equivalent power system model. Loss of load expectation (LOLE) and expected energy not served (EENS) are analyzed through the daily and monthly variation of the forced outage rate (FOR) of the modeled generator of Gyeongju and Yeonggwang areas. A generator equation with the increased FOR is proposed, including variation in the failure rate. LOLE, EENS and outage cost indices considering proposed modified FOR quantify the reduction in the reliability an outage cost of the Korean power system due to such a natural disaster. Comparing two area's results, it is present how much of the reliability has been decreased and how much the cost has been increased.