주기함수 수요 모형에 의한 국내산 과일과 수입산 과일의 경합관계 분석

Abstract

This paper analyzes substitution relationships between domestic fruits and imported fruits with a consideration taken into the seasonality in their demand and supply. For the analysis, we develop an extended Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System into which a cyclical functions are incorporated and then apply the demand system model to three domestic fruits of apple, watermelon, tomato and three imported fruits of orange, banana, and grape. We split the data set into two periods, before and after the Korea-Chile FTA, and compare various parameter estimates obtained from the demand system model between two periods. Estimated results on own, cross and scale flexibility parameters show that imported fruits have become stronger substitutes for domestic fruits after rather than before the FTA. Cyclical parameter estimates such as amplitudes and phases present that demand for domestic fruits has been more sensitive to fruits price changes after rather than before the FTA. In addition, the results indicate that there exist statistically significant changes at between two periods in terms of the delivery timing and share of domestic fruits into the markets. Results of this paper provide useful information to establish a program supporting domestic fruits producers who may not receive direct payments from the government because of producing fruits which are not botanically homogeneous as imported fruits.