글로벌 공급망 압력이 북미 서안 및 서유럽 항만 컨테이너 물동량에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

초록

This study analyzed the impact of Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) shocks on the container throughput at five Western European ports (Rotterdam, Hamburg, Antwerp-Bruges, Le Havre, and Bremerhaven) and five North American West Coast ports (Los Angeles, Long Beach, NWSA, Oakland, and Vancouver. Annual data from 1998 to 2025 were used. This study applied a VAR(1) model and traced the dynamic effects using impulse response functions and forecast-error variance decomposition. The results were as follows. A positive GSCPI shock induced negative responses in container throughput in both regions. At the regional aggregate level, the 10-year cumulative response was −5.79% for Western European ports and −2.84% for North American West Coast ports. Le Havre and Long Beach showed positive responses, while the largest negative responses were observed at Bremerhaven and Vancouver. The interregional interaction was asymmetric. Western European shocks accounted for 45.34% of the variation in North American West Coast throughput, while North American West Coast shocks contributed only 8.76% to Western European variation.

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