Testing the Durability of Post-2018 Manufacturing Decoupling

초록

Purpose – This paper examines whether East Asia’s production networks have reverted toward their pre-2018 configuration after the 2018 US–China trade conflict or entered a state of enduring decoupling and non-reversion. Design/Methodology – A harmonised multiregional input–output (MRIO) framework for nine economies (2007–2023) is used to derive the value-added-to-exports (VAX) ratio and the average propagation length (APL). An event-study and difference-in-differences strategy identifies dynamic and persistent structural adjustments. Findings – Results indicate a significant and symmetric decline in both backward and forward APL after 2018, with effects persisting into 2021–2023. The contraction reflects a structural shortening of production networks on both the input and output sides. VAX ratios remain broadly stable, suggesting that the adjustment occurred through network compression rather than a reduction in domestic value-added generation. Originality/Value – By combining VAX and APL within a unified MRIO framework, this study provides new empirical evidence of the non-reversion of East Asia’s production systems, revealing a durable shift from efficiency-driven globalisation to more regionally anchored reconfiguration in the post-2018 era.

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