Analysis of the distribution of exchange-rates near the 2008 global financial crisis

초록

We search for indicators that might have predicted the 2008 financial crisis, by analyzing the standardized normalized distribution of exchange-rates. We find that this distribution was close to normal during the crisis, but had an exceptionally high kurtosis in the second quarter of 2006, indicating the beginning of long-term USD weakness. Somewhat nearer to the crisis, we can also see suggestive fluctuations in some exchange-rates. Further, we analyze stock-market indices across the crisis, and show that they responded more sensitively than exchange-rates, and that the distribution of stock-market indices also has an exceptional value of kurtosis at Q2 2006, suggesting that the kurtosis of the distribution of exchange-rates might have provided as an early indicator of the crisis. ? 2020 Jun et.al.. This is an open access article licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/)

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