동아시아 및 오세아니아 주요 국가의 국내선 여객 수요 결정 요인 분석

초록

This study examines the factors influencing domestic air passenger demand in countries for which data are readily available among the top ten busiest domestic air routes as of 2023. The countries analyzed are Korea, China, Japan, and Australia. The explanatory variables include national GDP, total railway length, the number of national low-cost carriers (LCCs), and the number of UNESCO World Heritage sites. Panel fixed-effects and random-effects models are employed, and the Hausman test is used to identify the appropriate model specification. The results of the Hausman test indicate that the fixed-effects model is the preferred specification. The fixed-effects model shows strong explanatory power, with a within R² of 0.855. The estimation results reveal that total railway length has a statistically significant positive effect on domestic air passenger demand. In contrast, GDP, the number of LCCs, and the number of World Heritage sites do not exhibit statistically significant effects within the fixed-effects framework. While the random-effects model indicates positive effects of GDP, total railway length, and the number of LCCs, and a negative effect of World Heritage sites, these results are not supported once unobserved country-specific effects are controlled for. The findings remain robust after correcting for heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. These results suggest that domestic air passenger demand is more responsive to transport connectivity, particularly railway infrastructure, than to macroeconomic size or tourism resources alone. The positive association between railway expansion and air passenger demand implies a complementary relationship between rail and air transport, highlighting the importance of integrated transport infrastructure planning.

키워드