미국 관세정책의 세계 경제적 영향:일반균형 구조적 중력모형 분석

초록

Purpose : This study investigates the comprehensive and simultaneous impacts of U.S. tariffs increases on the global economy. Research design, data, methodology : The paper constructs a structural gravity model by building a bilateral trade panel dataset for 72 countries using the ADB Multiregional Input-Output Table (MRIO). We derive the general equilibrium of the structural gravity model using the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood(GEPPML) estimation method and conduct a counterfactual analysis of four scenarios based on U.S. tariff increases. Results : The results suggest that the decline in both trade and production is relatively larger in Canada and Mexico, while Korea and other major countries also experience decreases in both trade and production. Major countries' access to export markets deteriorates due to intensified competition for alternative export destinations substituting for the U.S. In addition, the negative effects on Korea become greater as the tariff on Korea is relatively higher and the U.S.-China conflict becomes more intense. Conclusions : The results indicate that the government support and strategic corporate responses in each country are necessary to mitigate the strain caused by intensified export competition. In addition, diplomatic efforts are also required to maintain relatively low tariff levels from the U.S. in order to reduce the negative effects of U.S. tariff increases.

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