산업연관분석을 활용한 우주산업의 경제적 파급효과 분석

초록

This study estimates the production, value-added, and employment ripple effects of changes in final demand for the space industry in Korea using input-output analysis. From a value chain perspective, the scope of the space industry is identified across upstream activities and downstream activities. Based on the Korean Standard Industrial Classification, 15 space-related industries are linked to the input-output system to construct a single “space industry” sector. Using the Bank of Korea 2023 input-output table as the benchmark, extended input-output tables for 2026-2030 are constructed with the bi-proportional adjustment method (RAS). To derive net spillovers to the rest of the economy, the space industry is treated as an exogenous sector. By controlling for own-industry effects, the study estimates the induced impacts on the non-space sectors. For 2030, the total inducement coefficients of the space industry are estimated as 1.7109 for output, 0.9301 for value added, and 7.0174 jobs per one billion won. The inducement coefficients for other industries are 0.7109 for output, 0.4320 for value added, and 3.1907 jobs per one billion won. When government space development investment in 2030 is set at 2.1 trillion won, the total induced impacts are estimated at 3.59289 trillion won in output, 1.95321 trillion won in value added, and 14,736.5 jobs. The shares attributable to other industries account for 41.55% of output, 46.45% of value added, and 45.47% of employment, indicating that more than 40% of the total impacts diffuse beyond the space industry itself. Spillovers to other industries are attributed relatively more to service sectors, including financial and insurance services, information, communication and broadcasting services, wholesale and retail trade, professional, scientific, and technical services, and business support services. Concentration is also high: in 2030, the top ten recipient industries account for 75.84% of induced output, 78.19% of induced value added, and 84.74% of induced employment. In addition, over 2026–2030, the output and value-added inducement coefficients show a slight increase, while the employment inducement coefficient declines, and the composition of the top recipient industries remains broadly stable.

키워드