이익투명성의 배당촉진 효과에 대한 ‘경영자 과신성향과 외국인 지분율’의 차별적 영향

초록

This study investigates the impact of earnings transparency on firms’ dividend policy and examines whether this relationship is moderated by managerial overconfidence and foreign ownership. Using a comprehensive sample of firms listed on the Korea Exchange (KRX) from 2015 to 2024, we find that higher earnings transparency is positively and significantly associated with dividend payout ratios, suggesting that a transparent information environment promotes shareholder returns. However, this positive association is significantly attenuated in firms led by overconfident managers, whereas it is bolstered in firms with higher foreign ownership. These results offer timely policy implications for recent government initiatives, such as the “Corporate Value－up Program”：enhancing the transparency of earnings disclosures alone may be insufficient to increase shareholder payouts unless supported by governance mechanisms that constrain managerial biases and strengthen external monitoring. Overall, our findings indicates that investors and policymakers should consider not only the transparency of accounting information but also managerial behavioral traits and the strength of external oversight when assessing firms’ propensity to return cash to shareholders.

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