Structural Persistence in East Asia’s Production Networks

초록

While East Asia has long served as the cornerstone of global production networks, the 2018 US–China trade conflict sparked concerns of a permanent structural fragmentation in regional supply chains. This study investigates whether these networks recovered from the 2018 shock or transitioned into a new structural equilibrium, utilizing a newly harmonized multi-regional input–output dataset spanning 2007–2023. By measuring production-network complexity through backward and forward Average Propagation Length (APL)and domestic value-added retention via the Value-Added Export ratio (VAX), the analysis employs fixed-effects panel regressions alongside an interrupted time-series (ITS) design. The findings reveal that longer backward linkages significantly bolster domestic value retention, particularly within Southeast Asian economies. Crucially, the ITS results indicate a sharp, negative level shift in both backward and forward APL starting in 2018, followed by stagnant post-shock trends. This suggests that the region experienced a discrete and persistent contractionrather than a temporary disruption. Ultimately, East Asia’s production networks have not reverted to their pre-2018 depth; instead, they exhibit a sustained shift toward more compact, regionally anchored supply chains, signaling a lasting period of post-2018 decoupling and structural persistence.

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