기후변화에 따른 미국흰불나방의 한국 내 잠재 서식지 예측

초록

This study aimed to predict the habitat suitability for the fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea) in South Korea by comprehensively considering key environmental factors, such as climate change and land cover change. First, the MaxEnt model was constructed using global occurrence data to simulate changes in habitat suitability under climate change scenarios. Subsequently, the potential risk areas (PRAs) of Hyphantria cunea in forests and urban areas were analyzed based on land cover changes. The results indicated that suitable habitats for H. cunea are likely to be distributed across most regions of South Korea, excluding the Taebaek Mountain Range and the high-altitude areas of Hallasan Mountain. Under the integrated Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario combinations, the PRA for H. cunea was projected to increase from 66,934 km 2 to 67,363 km 2 by the 2055s and 2085s under the SSP1. In contrast, under SSP3, the PRA showed a significant decrease from 66,676 km 2 to 59,696 km 2 . However, in all scenarios, the PRA percentage for H. cunea still exceeded 80% of the total land area, highlighting the necessity for continuous control and management of H. cunea. This study underscores the need for sustained management of the widespread H. cunea population in South Korea and provides foundational data for monitoring, early warning, prevention, control, and management of H. cunea. Furthermore, by comprehensively analyzing the effects of climate change and land use change on habitat suitability for H. cunea, the findings are expected to contribute to the development of effective control and management strategies.

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