직접일자리사업 이후 참여자의 고용 경로 선택에 미치는 요인 분석

초록

This study aims to identify the performance of direct job creation programs by classifying participants’ post-program employment trajectories and examining the characteristics of each employment pathway as well as the determinants influencing pathway selection. The results indicate that direct job creation programs serve as a stepping stone toward private-sector employment; however, their effectiveness in leading to stable employment appears limited. In addition, participants in metropolitan areas showed a higher probability of maintaining employment after transitioning to private-sector jobs, whereas participants in non-metropolitan regions exhibited a higher likelihood of returning to unemployment, suggesting that regional industrial and labor market structures significantly affect employment retention. Meanwhile, being male, belonging to a vulnerable group, and obtaining reemployment in firms with larger size or higher wage levels than those at the time of program participation were found to increase the probability of transitioning into reemployment followed by subsequent unemployment (Case 4). Kaplan–Meier analysis further revealed that participants who received unemployment benefits experienced relatively faster reemployment, which may reflect both the influence of the unemployment insurance system and differences in job-search experiences during the reemployment process. Factors associated with a higher probability of unemployment included being male with higher expected wage levels, older individuals with relatively lower labor productivity, and participants with inter-regional mobility experience. These findings suggest that direct job creation programs should be repositioned not merely as instruments for temporary job provision, but as transitional programs that support reentry into the labor market. To this end, policy efforts should focus on strengthening vocational training and job-matching functions, while shifting the performance management framework from emphasizing simple employment outcomes toward incorporating employment retention outcomes.

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