K-방산 수출 활성화를 위한 정부 지원 효과성 연구 : 마케팅 지원사업 참여기업의 성과를 중심으로

초록

This study conducted a PSM-DID analysis on 249 companies participating in the K-Defense Marketing Support Program from 2020 to 2025 to identify the policy's causal outcomes. The analysis revealed that in the first year of support, profitability improvements were immediately observed due to reduced initial cost burdens. Subsequently, with a time lag of approximately two years, the sales growth rate surged by 23.6 percentage points compared to non-beneficiary companies, demonstrating a tangible market expansion effect. Furthermore, in the third year, a 15.7 percentage point employment creation effect was confirmed to occur sequentially. This ‘time-lag effect’ demonstrates the long lead time inherent in defense exports, suggesting that a long-term monitoring system spanning at least three years is essential for future policy evaluations.

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