Integrating habitat suitability, socioeconomics, and infrastructure to assess global biological invasion risk under climate change: A case study of the rice stem borer, Chilo suppressalis

초록

BACKGROUND: Biological invasion risk is a multifaceted concept that, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), results from the likelihood of entry, establishment, and dispersal, along with the potential impact magnitude. Based on this definition, we developed a national-scale risk index using normalization and entropy-based objective weights. The striped rice stem borer (RSB, Chilo suppressalis) was used as a case study to demonstrate global invasion risk under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our framework integrated key data, including trade volume, transportation networks, cropland cover, irrigation, the Ecoclimate Index (EI) from the CLIMEX model, and rice harvest area to construct likelihood, and magnitude criteria. The final risk index (Risk) was calculated by multiplying likelihood and magnitude.<br /> RESULTS: Substantial inhabitable areas (EI > 0) exist in Africa (60.7% of land area), North America (36.1%), and South America (85.6%). Risk was highest in South America (0.21), followed by Africa (0.18), North America (0.17), and Europe (0.08). Under SSPs, climate and land cover changes are projected to intensify regional differences in invasion risk. Risk is expected to increase in South America under all SSPs and in Europe under SSP585. In contrast, Risk is projected to decline in North America under all SSPs, while in Africa it shows a slight increase around the 2050s before decreasing.<br /> CONCLUSION: RSB has sufficient potential to threaten global food security. Given the varied regional patterns of risk components, proactive, region-specific biosecurity measures are essential for high-risk hotspots. The proposed framework provides a valuable tool for pest risk assessment.

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