Modeling the Higher Heating Value of Spanish Biomass via Neural Networks and Analytical Equations

초록

Accurate estimation of biomass higher heating value (HHV) is crucial for designing efficient bioenergy systems. In this study, we developed a Backpropagation artificial neural network (ANN) that predicts HHV from routine proximate/ultimate composition data. The network (9-6-6-1 architecture, trained for 15,000 epochs with learning rate 0.3 and momentum 0.4) was calibrated on 99 diverse Spanish biomass samples (inputs: moisture, ash, volatile matter, fixed carbon, C, H, O, N, S). The optimized ANN achieved strong predictive accuracy (validation R2 approximate to 0.81; mean squared error approximate to 1.33 MJ/kg; MAE approximate to 0.77 MJ/kg), representing a substantial improvement over 54 analytical models despite the known complexity and variability of biomass composition. Importantly, in direct comparisons it significantly outperformed 54 published analytical HHV correlations-the ANN achieved substantially higher R2 and lower prediction error than any fixed-form formula in the literature. A sensitivity analysis confirmed chemically intuitive trends (higher C/H/FC increase HHV; higher moisture/ash/O reduce it), indicating the model learned meaningful fuel-property relationships. The ANN thus provided a computationally efficient and robust tool for rapid, accurate HHV estimation from compositional data. Future work will expand the dataset, incorporate thermal pretreatment effects, and integrate the model into a user-friendly decision-support platform for bioenergy applications.

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