금융 콘텐츠의 실질 가치 평가와 소비자 정보 비대칭성 분석: 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 기반의 적정 수익률 모델을 중심으로

초록

This study redefines Equity-Linked Securities (ELS) as a form of financial content, noting that while they have emerged as a popular investment alternative amidst low interest rates, they continue to face controversy regarding incomplete sales (miss-selling) due to their complex derivative structures. The purpose of this study is to resolve information asymmetry in the market by moving away from supplier-centric pricing logic and proposing a probability-weighted fair return model that evaluates the intrinsic value of the product from a consumer's perspective. To this end, we performed 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations under the assumption of Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to estimate and quantitatively analyze potential future cash flows under various payoff structures currently in circulation, such as Knock-In and Knock-Out types. The empirical results confirmed that high- and medium-risk (Knock-In) content with inherent principal loss risk recorded a fair return approximately 1.0%p to 1.7%p higher than the risk-free rate (3.5%), indicating that a premium for structural risk is properly reflected. In contrast, some low-risk (Knock-Out ELB) content emphasizing principal protection exhibited a value inversion phenomenon where the fair return failed to reach the risk-free rate due to upside profit caps, revealing concerns regarding the loss of opportunity costs for consumers. In conclusion, this study suggests that moving away from simple marketing practices centered on headline coupon rates and introducing fair return as an objective quality index is an essential prerequisite for financial consumer protection and the sound growth of the content industry.

키워드