미·중 무역갈등과 동아시아 제조업 경제의 부문별 반응

초록

Purpose : This paper examines how East Asian production networks have adjusted to the 2018 US–China trade conflict, with a focus on sectoral heterogeneity. It asks whether more trade-intensive economy–sector units experienced different post-2018 dynamics and whether such exposure-related effects intensified, reversed, or simply persisted under the Biden administration. Research design, data, methodology : Using multi-regional input–output data for 2007–2023, the analysis covers nine economies and five tradable sectors (primary, resource-based, low-tech, medium-tech and high-tech manufacturing). It constructs value-added export indicators (VAX) and backward and forward average propagation lengths (APL). A predetermined exposure proxy based on pre-2018 export intensity is combined with an exposure-proxy event-study specification centred on 2018, with sector interactions and robustness checks using alternative exposure measures and two-way clustered inference. Results : Exposure-related post-2018 effects on VAX and APL are modest and often imprecisely estimated, providing limited evidence of large or persistent deviations from pre-2018 trajectories. Block-difference statistics show that average exposure effects in 2021–2023 are statistically indistinguishable from those in 2018–2020, and within-Biden stability tests reveal no sharp breaks. Sectoral analysis reveals moderate heterogeneity, especially for forward APL in high-tech and primary sectors and VAX in medium-tech manufacturing. Conclusions : The findings point to persistent but muted sectoral adjustment, rather than a wholesale reconfiguration of East Asian production networks, in response to the US–China trade conflict.

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