공적연금 연금자동조정장치(AAM) 도입 방안: 다차원 시뮬레이션 접근

초록

As rising life expectancy threatens the fiscal sustainability of Korea’s public pensions (the National Pension Service, NPS; Government Employees Pension, GEP), this study extends Kim and Choi (2025) by using the benefit-to-contribution ratio to identify the optimal parameter mix for an Automatic Adjustment Mechanism (AAM). We conduct an exhaustive grid search over 5,400 scenarios combining life expectancy (84~89), retirement age (60~65), pension eligibility age (65~70), and indexation factors (the civil-servant wage growth rate (1.5%~3.5%) and the benefit revaluation rate (3.5%~5.5%)). Four findings emerge. First, life expectancy is the dominant driver: the cohort-average ratio rises from 1.21 to 1.51 (GEP) and 1.66 to 2.07 (NPS). Second, raising the eligibility age as AAM lowers both ratios (by 0.256 and 0.217), and cutting the revaluation rate lowers the NPS’s by a 0.21; in contrast, raising the retirement age causes asymmetric effect by pushing the GEP ratio down below 1.0 and pushing the NPS ratio up above 2.46. Third, converging both indexation factors at 3.5% lifts the cross-scheme ratio to 0.96, enhancing fiscal sustainability and inter-scheme equity simultaneously. Fourth, jointly raising the eligibility age and converging the indexation factors as optimal AAM delivers the best result (NPS 1.65→1.47; GEP 1.21→1.41; cross-scheme 0.73→0.96). Therefore, We suggest that eligibility-age adjustment combined with a lower revaluation rate constitutes an effective basis for an AAM.

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