전지구 해수면변동 개념모델을 이용한 미래 100만년 한반도 주변 해수면 변화 예측

초록

This study presents long-term projections of global and regional sea level changes over the next one million years using a conceptual global sea level model, and evaluates the corresponding shoreline variations around the Korean Peninsula. The global ice-volume variations over the past one million years were first simulated using a conceptual global ice-volume model, and the modeled results show a strong correlation with proxy-based global sea level reconstructions, with correlation coefficients of 0.78 for the past 800 kyr and 0.81 for the past 500 kyr, confirming the model’s long-term reproducibility. Future simulations applying five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas scenarios indicate that under low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5), the next glacial inception is expected to occur approximately 50-60 kyr from the present. In contrast, under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), the onset of the next glaciation is delayed until 120-170 kyr in the future. Notably, the SSP5-8.5 scenario projects an exceptionally prolonged interglacial period lasting over 100 kyr, with a global mean sea-level rise of up to 24 m that persists for an. Copyright © 2026 Ocean and Polar Research.

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