탄저병 분생포자 비산 기반 예찰 모델과 위험도 지수

초록

Anthracnose causes serious economic damage to crop production worldwide. Conidia of anthracnose serve as an inoculum source during anthracnose epidemics. This study investigated the variation in conidial dispersal and its relationship to environmental factors using spore-trapping. We utilized previous research that recorded conidial dispersal from the first week of May to the end of September in Jinju, a major producer of sweet persimmons in Korea, during a five-year persimmon cultivation period (2006–2010). In this study, a computer model simulated conidial dispersal using accumulated degree days. The total average accumulated degree days from May 1 to 50% conidial dispersal for the observed data (1450℃ days) did not differ significantly from the predicted value of 1468℃ days. Furthermore, the computer model simulated conidial dispersal using accumulated rainfall days. The average cumulative rainfall days for the 27 days observed from May 1 until 50% conidial dispersal was same as the predicted value of 27 days. To adjust disinfectant application rates based on anthracnose risk, we developed an anthracnose risk index. The anthracnose risk index utilizes a baseline temperature range of 20–32℃ and incorporates a high-temperature rule that reduces the estimated daily risk point when the temperature exceeds 33℃. Because rainfall plays a significant role in the spread of anthracnose, we also incorporated a rainfall rule into the model to reduce the estimated daily risk point in the absence of rainfall.

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