HSPF 모형을 이용한 합천댐 유입량 추정

초록

The objective of this study was to calibrate and validate the HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) model for estimating the runoff of theHapcheon dam watershed. Spatial data, such as watershed, stream, land use, and a digital elevation map, were used as input data for the HSPF model. Observed runoff data from 2000 to 2016 in study watershed were used for calibration and validation. Hydrologic parameters for runoff calibration wereselected based on the user’s manual and references, and trial and error method was used for parameter calibration. The R2, RMSE (root-mean-squareerror), RMAE (relative mean absolute error), and NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient) were used to evaluate the model’s performance. Calibrationand validation results showed that annual mean runoff was within ±4% error. The model performance criteria for calibration and validation showedthat R2 was in the rang of 0.78 to 0.83, RMSE was 2.55 to 2.76 mm/day, RMAE was 0.46 to 0.48 mm/day, and NSE was 0.81 to 0.82 for dailyrunoff. The amount of inflow to Hapcheon Dam was calculated from the calibrated HSPF model and the result was compared with observed inflow,which was -0.9% error. As a result of analyzing the relation between inflow and storage capacity, it was found that as the inflow increases, the storageincreases, and when the inflow decreases, the storage also decreases. As a result of correlation between inflow and storage, R2 of the measured inflowand storage was 0.67, and the simulated inflow and storage was 0.61.

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