체감물가 수준에 따른 가계의 식료품 지출액 변화 분석

초록

In order to analyze how Korean households' food expenditure has been changed in response to their perceived inflation, we employed the Generalized Propensity Score (GPS) and Dose-Response Function (DRF) approaches. The results indicated that the relationship between perceived inflation and food expenditure exhibited variation across inflation environments. In 2021, when inflation remained relatively stable, changes in perceived inflation were not associated with statistically significant changes in food expenditure. Conversely, during the protracted period of elevated inflation in 2024, a nonlinear V-shaped dose-response relationship was identified, whereby food expenditure exhibited an initial decline as perceived inflation increased, subsequently increasing again beyond a certain threshold. The findings indicate that consumers initially respond to rising prices by reducing the quantities of purchased food products or substituting to lower-priced alternatives. However, once inflation exceeds a critical threshold, their capacity for further expenditure adjustment becomes constrained, causing higher prices to be reflected in actual food expenditure. This expenditure pattern is consistent across various machine learning methods for GPS estimation. The threshold in perceived inflation rates suggests that consumer food expenditure patterns may transition to a different adjustment regime under sustained high inflation. In light of the implications of rising food prices on consumers’ inflation expectations and household food security, it is imperative that policy authorities take proactive measures to stabilize supply and demand before food price inflation rates exceed a predetermined threshold.

키워드