아파트 매도시기 의사결정 지원시스템 구축을 위한 모델링 체계 개발

초록

From the perspective of seller, this study attempts modeling and conducts pilot tests to establish a decision-making system for the optimal time to sell apartments. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's actual transaction price disclosure system, sales data for 1,429 complexes in Jeonbuk with different apartment location conditions and physical product features, such as apartment sales prices, exclusive apt size, administrative districts, and construction year data, were collected from January 2006 to December 2023. The data was analyzed by mixture modeling. As a result of the empirical analysis, three sub-groups with different periods of maximum relative sales prices compared to the average transaction price of apartments in Jeollabuk-do over 18 years according to apartment location conditions and physical product features. The optimal selling timing for apartment sellers in each segment were 20.8, 2.9 and 12.8 years after construction. Based on this pilot test, the conditions for each segmented market in the Jeonbuk region can be used as a model for the apartment sales time decision support system.

키워드