국제유가 충격 이후 주요 항만 물동량의 동태적 조정경로 비교분석

초록

Purpose : This study compares the dynamic adjustment paths of cargo throughput at major Korean ports following crude oil price shocks. Research design, data, methodology : Monthly data for Busan Port, Ulsan Port, and Pyeongtaek-Dangjin Port from January 2005 to December 2025 are analyzed using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and dynamic multipliers. Crude oil price changes are decomposed into positive and negative partial sums, while the exchange rate and total exports are included as control variables. Results : A long-run relationship is found for all three ports. At Busan and Ulsan Ports, only positive oil price shocks have a significant negative effect on cargo throughput, indicating long-run asymmetry. At Pyeongtaek-Dangjin Port, the long-run coefficients of both positive and negative partial sums are statistically significant, while the difference between the two coefficients is not significant. The dynamic multipliers show that Busan and Ulsan Ports adjust relatively quickly, whereas Pyeongtaek-Dangjin Port exhibits similar adjustment paths following positive and negative shocks. Conclusions : The effects and adjustment paths of crude oil price shocks differ across ports according to their functions and cargo structures. These findings suggest that port-specific responses and adjustment periods should be considered when assessing the effects of external price shocks.

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