미국의 대중국 반도체 기술 제재가 중국의 기술혁신에 미친 영향 - 이중차분법을 이용한 역설적 효과의 실증분석 -

초록

This study empirically examines the causal effects of U.S. semiconductor export controls imposed on China on October 7, 2022, focusing on their impact on China’s technological innovation. Treating the export controls as an exogenous policy shock, the study employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) framework combined with a dynamic event-study approach using monthly panel data from January 2020 to December 2023. China is defined as the treatment group, while South Korea and Taiwan serve as control groups. R&D investment is used as an input indicator of innovation, and semiconductor-related patent applications are used as an output indicator. The empirical results reveal that, following the sanctions, China’s semiconductor R&D investment increased by approximately 34.7% relative to the control group, while patent applications rose by about 24.5%. These findings contradict the predictions of traditional sanctions theory, which assumes that technology restrictions suppress innovation, and instead suggest a paradoxical effect whereby sanctions stimulate innovative activity. Mediation analysis further shows that approximately 33.3% of the total increase in patent output is explained by increased R&D investment, while the remaining 66.7% arises from direct channels such as the concentration of existing research capabilities and improvements in research efficiency. Dynamic analysis indicates a short-term contraction immediately after the sanctions, followed by a rapid rebound around six months later and subsequent stabilization at a higher level. By adopting a dynamic and system-oriented perspective, this study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that technology sanctions may induce adaptive responses within national innovation systems rather than simply restraining technological progress. The findings offer important implications for the design and evaluation of technology sanctions in the context of intensifying global technological competition.

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