지정학적 충격 이후 동아시아 생산망의 다운스트림 재정렬과 구조 전환

초록

This study examines how the escalation of the 2018 US–China trade conflict reshaped East Asia’s production networks and domestic value-added performance, and whether these networks reverted to their pre-shock trajectory. Using ADB multi-regional input–output (MRIO) tables for 2007–2023, we reclassify manufacturing industries in China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam into five Lall (2000) technology groups (PP, RB, LT, MT, HT) and construct indicators of network structure—forward and backward average propagation lengths (APL_F, APL_B)—and value capture—value-added exports (VAX; Johnson–Noguera and Koopman–Wang–Wei). By linking connectivity and value-capture outcomes, the paper identifies the persistence and potential irreversibility of the shock at the industry level. Panel interrupted time-series (ITS) estimates show that 2018 marks a turning point: the pre-shock association between network deepening and improved VAX weakens thereafter. Adjustments are more pronounced in downstream linkages adjacent tofinal demand and exports than in upstream sourcing. VAX displays a short-run increase immediately after the shock, but its post-shock trend subsequently slows, suggesting that the traditional upgrading mechanism—whereby network expansion and deepening translated into domestic value capture —has weakened. Evidence of selective adjustment is concentrated in PP, RB, and HT, where level shifts coincide with trend slowdowns, implying a partial, multi-layered restructuring driven by risk hedging and asymmetric regulatory pressures rather than uniform decoupling. Policy implications include shifting from volume-led GVC participation toward domestically embedded value-capture capabilities, extending resilience governance to downstream market/logistics/regulatory risks, and institutionalizing economic-security infrastructure through early-warning systems, compliance support, and regional coordination.

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