세계 각국과의 곡물 무역 현황

초록

Global disruptions—including COVID-19, U.S.–China trade tensions, the war in Ukraine, and climate extremes—have destabilized food supply chains and increased grain price volatility. Korea, which imports nearly all grains except rice, faces significant structural vulnerabilities: its average annual demand is approximately 23 million tons, while domestic production is around 4.5 million tons (about 90% of which is rice), necessitating imports of roughly 18 million tons. This study examines Korea's overseas agricultural resource development and grain procurement policies, evaluates global grain trading structures dominated by a few multinationals (ABCD), and analyzes domestic trading practices and crisis events. Using government plans (Phases I–III) and recent performance data, we document an increase in secured overseas volumes, projected to reach 2.60 million tons in 2024, but limited domestic contributions of just 0.38 million tons (14.5% of secured volumes and about 2% of total demand). There is a heavy concentration of projects in Russia and Southeast Asia, primarily involving small, farm-scale ventures (less than 1,000 hectares). Market characteristics —such as lowest-price tenders, high logistics costs, export restrictions, and insufficient midstream assets (elevators, export terminals, refining capacity)—hinder responsiveness during disruptions. We argue that a government-led, episodic approach has not been effective, and propose that a model driven by private sector initiatives, supported by the state, is more suitable for navigating a concentrated and volatile grain market. Policy recommendations include: (i) diversifying origin portfolios and trading instruments (CFR/FOB with increased use of futures/hedging); (ii) shifting focus from smallholder production projects to scalable midstream investments (country/export elevators, storage, processing) and establishing long-term offtake agreements; (iii) mobilizing concessional finance and risk-sharing facilities to encourage private sector involvement; (iv) strengthening domestic demand linkages (early buyer onboarding, aligning tariff-rate quotas/incentives); and (v) expanding regional exposure beyond Russia to mitigate geopolitical and climate risks. By developing an integrated value chain—from production through logistics and processing to import—Korea can enhance the effective import share from secured overseas volumes and significantly improve its food security resilience.

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