소득 재분배 정책의 경로의존성에 관한 연구- 노무현 정부부터 윤석열 정부를 중심으로 -

초록

In the context of prolonged high inflation and low economic growth, income inequality and socio-economic polarization have deepened, heightening the importance of governmental income redistribution policies designed to address these problems. This study analyzes, from a historical institutionalist perspective, the policy changes in two core income redistribution programs implemented by successive governments from the Roh Moo-hyun administration to the Yoon Suk-yeol administration: the National Basic Livelihood Security (NBLS) scheme and the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). The analysis shows that, despite shifts in the ideological orientation of governing parties (conservative versus progressive), these policies have not undergone abrupt discontinuities or wholesale transformations. Rather, they have been gradually expanded and adjusted while preserving the basic framework and underlying logic of the original schemes, thereby exhibiting clear path dependence. First, the NBLS scheme has enhanced the efficiency of support by transforming a unified benefit structure into a tailored, benefit-specific system, while simultaneously expanding the scope of coverage through institutional layering—most notably via the gradual abolition of the family support obligation criteria. Second, while maintaining its core principle as a work-contingent tax credit, the EITC has undergone continuous institutional layering that has gradually shifted its functional focus from promoting work incentives toward providing income support. These patterns of policy change illustrate a form of “conditional partisanship,” in which the ideological orientations of governing parties manifest themselves differentially under conditions of crisis, yet remain constrained by pre-existing institutional trajectories. Ultimately, this study elucidates the mechanisms of institutional continuity and change in income redistribution policy and, on this basis, proposes several key policy implications for the future design of efficient and fiscally sustainable redistribution schemes. In particular, it highlights the need to control the fiscal trajectory of these programs, to refine policy goals in line with the principle of targeted (selective) support, and to reduce functional overlap across related schemes.

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