독립재정기구 유형과 정치･제도적 견제 수준이 재정건전성에 미치는 영향: EU 26개국을 중심으로

초록

This study examines the relationships among types of independent fiscal institutions (IFIs), political-institutional checks, and fiscal soundness, using panel data for 26 EU countries, 2015–2023. Previous studies have largely treated functional strength and political-institutional checks separately. This study classifies IFIs into four types― Fiscal Council, Parliamentary Budget Office, Audit-affiliated, and Mixed―by organizational location and linkage to the budget process. It then examines the interaction between functional strength and checks, and whether the relationship between checks and the structural balance differs across types. With the structural balance as the dependent variable, a System GMM estimator addresses the dynamic persistence of fiscal outcomes and the endogeneity of institutional variables. The interaction between functional strength and political-institutional checks is not statistically significant, and the hypothesis that stronger checks reinforce this relationship is not supported. In the Fiscal Council reference group, checks are positively associated with the structural balance at the 10 percent level, a result robust to using the primary balance and the cyclically adjusted balance as alternatives. However, no type-specific interaction term is significant, so the hypothesis of type-varying effects is also not supported. These findings suggest that the role of IFIs is not fully captured by functional strength alone, and that fiscal governance design in Korea should consider IFIs' organizational location and the political-institutional environment in which their information is used.

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