글로벌 해상교통로 리스크와 전략상선대 규모 추정: 한국의 국가 해상수송능력 분석

초록

This study analyzed the scale and policy necessity of the minimum maritime transport capacity that Korea must institutionally secure in preparation for national emergencies amid persistent geopolitical conflicts and heightened risks of maritime chokepoint disruptions. To this end, this study considered wartime and equivalent national emergency scenarios and estimated the required size of a strategic shipping fleet according to the vessel type through scenario analysis that reflects the disruptions to major maritime routes. The research method is based on setting emergency transport demand derived from peacetime cargo volumes and incorporating route-related constraints, including increased sailing distances, extended voyage times, and reduced annual voyage frequencies, into the analytical framework. The results suggest that 200 vessels are required under a Korean War scenario, while the required fleet size increases to 229 and 208 vessels in the case of a Malacca Strait blockade and Taiwan Strait blockade, respectively. These findings suggest that the existing National Essential Shipping system, which relies primarily on ex post vessel designation, is insufficient to address complex maritime route risks. This study redefines the strategic shipping fleet as a public maritime transport service secured through advanced contractual arrangements and provides policy implications for enhancing national economic security and supply chain resilience.

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