도시 내부 인구 재배치에 따른 로컬 상권의 비대칭적 조정 현상: - 진주시 행정동 패널 데이터 분석

초록

This study reconceptualizes commercial decline in the old downtown of a small provincial city not as a problem of individual establishments but as spatial redistribution in a population-based neighborhood demand opportunity structure and the net adjustment of establishments to it. Registration statistics and establishment census data for 14 neighborhoods (dong) in Jinju were combined into a 2012–2024 panel and analyzed using two-way fixed-effects models together with small-sample cluster (wild cluster) bootstrap tests to examine the relationship between population change and establishment adjustment. The results show that although the city's total population grew by only 1.2% over 11.5 years, four newly supplied neighborhoods gained about 48,000 residents net while the remaining ten neighborhoods lost about 42,000, revealing large-scale internal redistribution beneath aggregate stability. Establishments responded to population increases at nearly the same rate, but no significant response was found for population declines, indicating an asymmetric adjustment that remained robust under leave-one-out tests. In addition, contracting specialization — a state in which relative specialization is maintained or strengthened while the absolute number of establishments declines — was observed in 34 of 244 neighborhood–industry combinations, with retail in Jungang-dong the most pronounced case. This study provides empirical grounds for caution in using establishment counts as a proxy for commercial vitality, and offers practical implications for local governments and small-business support policy, including the need to incorporate neighborhood-level demand opportunity structure information.

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