국내 및 미국의 수문빈도 해석프로그램 기반 부산 지역 홍수위험도 분석

초록

Unanticipated natural disasters, especially flash floods, are rising under global climate change and intensify risks to hydraulic infrastructure. This study presents a comparative evaluation of two frequency analysis tools, RFAHD (Regional Frequency Analysis for Hydrological Data) and HEC SSP (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Statistical Software Package), for design flood estimation. Continuous sub hourly rainfall records from 1961 to present at Busan observation station No 159 in Jung-gu, Busan, serve as input. RFAHD derives flood magnitudes by conducting annual maximum rainfall frequency analysis and coupling results with a rainfall runoff model, whereas HEC SSP applies Bulletin 17B and 17C statistical methods directly to flood data. By running both tools on identical datasets, we quantify differences arising from hydrologic model selection and statistical distribution assumptions, with special attention to intensity duration frequency curve extrapolation. Results highlight systematic biases in extreme‐event estimates and underscore each tool’s suitability. Our findings inform the choice of analysis software for robust hydraulic structure design under changing climate conditions. © 2026 Korea Water Resources Association.

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