금융위기 전후 배당 케이터링 효과의 구조적 변화

초록

This study investigates whether the catering theory (Baker & Wurgler, 2004a, 2004b)—which posits that firms adjust their dividend policies in response to changes in investor demand—holds in the Korean capital market. Using data from KOSPI-listed firms between 2002 and 2021, we analyze the structural changes in the dividend catering effect before and after the global financial crisis (2008-2009). The empirical results show that, over the full sample period, the Korean capital market exhibits a dividend catering effect consistent with the theory. However, after excluding the highly volatile crisis years (2008-2009) and comparing the pre- and post-crisis periods, we identify a distinct structural shift: the catering theory holds in the pre-crisis period but not in the post-crisis period. the results provide policy implications for current initiatives by the Korean government, such as the “Value-up Program,” aimed at alleviating the Korea Discount and promoting sustainable corporate value enhancement.

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