Future Land Use and Cover Modeling in South Korea: Linking SSP-RCP with FLUS Model

Abstract

Accurate prediction of land use and land cover (LULC) change is essential for sustainable development and climate change adaptation planning. This study projects LULC changes across 17 administrative regions of South Korea from 2020 to 2050 using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model under four integrated SSP-RCP scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The model was calibrated with land cover data for 2000-2010 and validated against observations for 2010-2020 using socioeconomic variables together with CMIP6 climate projections. In practical terms, FLUS produces scenario-based maps of future land patterns that inform land regulation, infrastructure planning, and climate adaptation. Across all scenarios, urban areas expanded by 488,000-585,000 ha, mainly through the conversion of agricultural land, which accounted for 10-24% of transitions in high-growth regions. Agricultural land decreased by 124,000-174,000 ha, and forests declined by 473,000-572,000 ha. Transformation intensity peaked around 2030 and then slowed in later decades. Urban expansion was greatest under SSP5-8.5, followed by SSP3-7.0, SSP1-2.6, and SSP2-4.5. Gyeonggi Province exhibited the most pronounced spatial change, whereas Seoul showed limited additional growth consistent with its already saturated urban structure. Validation results indicated an overall accuracy range of 57-83% with metropolitan areas generally outperforming provincial regions. These findings reveal spatial and temporal hotspots of land cover change and provide region-specific information that can guide urban development, land and ecosystem management, climate adaptation policy, and progress toward carbon neutrality.