Assessment of Potential Storm Surge Hazards Using the Probabilistic Synthetic Typhoon Ensemble: The Western Coast Nuclear Power Plant Site in Korea

Abstract

This study assesses the potential storm surge hazards at the Hanbit Nuclear Power Plant (HNPP) site on the western coast of Korea using 33 synthetic typhoons generated by the tropical cyclone risk model (TCRM). The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model was used to simulate storm surge responses, and the quantitative impacts of key meteorological parameters (central pressure, maximum wind speed, radius of maximum wind) and closest approach distance were evaluated. Results show that the maximum storm surge height (MSSH) increases with stronger typhoon intensity, while the complex island topography near the HNPP site significantly reduces surge height during close approaches. Interestingly, the time-integrated storm surge height (TISSH) revealed that certain mid-range tracks can produce larger cumulative surge effects than closer, stronger typhoons. This highlights the necessity of incorporating surge duration and volume (TISSH), not just peak height (MSSH), into hazard assessments. The HNPP site exhibits relatively favorable topographic conditions compared to other western coastal regions. Future work should consider high-resolution 3D inundation modeling and include compound effects such as wave-tide interactions and sea level rise scenarios to enhance long-term safety planning for coastal nuclear infrastructure.