Modeling Current and Future Distribution of Ainsliaea acerifolia in Southeastern Korea Using MaxEnt Approach

Abstract

Ainsliaea acerifolia, a perennial herbaceous plant endemic to forested regions of the Korean Peninsula, has drawn attention for its bioactive properties and potential as a functional food and medicinal resource. Despite its ecological and economic value, little is known about its spatial distribution or habitat preferences under changing climatic conditions. This study aims to quantify the current and future habitat suitability of A. acerifolia in southeastern Korea—including Gyeongsangnam-do, Busan, and Ulsan—using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) species distribution model. A total of 217 presence records were compiled from both GBIF data and field surveys, and seven key environmental variables were selected through multicollinearity screening. Model performance was robust (mean AUC = 0.845), and key predictors included topographic roughness (TRI), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and mean diurnal range (Bio2). Under current climate conditions, 31.5% of the study area was identified as suitable habitat (≥0.222), with only 4.7% categorized as core habitat (≥0.6). Future projections under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicated substantial habitat contraction, particularly in coastal and lowland areas, with refugial zones likely to persist in mid-elevation inland mountains (500–900 m). These findings suggest that A. acerifolia is highly sensitive to climatic variability and emphasizes the urgent need for conservation strategies focused on climate-resilient refugia and ecological corridors. The study provides a spatial framework for species conservation planning under future climate uncertainty.