시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 경상남도 의사인력 수급추계를 통한 적정성 연구*

Abstract

= Abstract = Background: The adequate provision of medical care relies on the availability of a suitable number of healthcare professionals. To ensure stability in healthcare delivery, it is crucial for a country to accurately estimate and address the supply of doctors. This study aims to contribute to the formulation of effective policies for securing and distributing doctor manpower, with a focus on medically underserved areas at both the national and local government levels. Methods: Employing the system dynamics methodology, this research utilizes stock and flow diagrams, including level and rate diagrams, to quantitatively analyze the cumulative structure of the doctor supply and demand system. Results: The analysis reveals a substantial shortage of clinical doctors in Gyeongsangnam-do, amounting to 15,477 as of 2021. Projections indicate a need for an additional 7,570 doctors by the year 2050 to maintain the current healthcare service level. Examination of medical treatment rights and distribution across cities and counties indicates an insufficiency in doctor supply relative to demand in the majority of regions. Alternative scenarios, such as increasing medical school enrollments and adjusting retirement ages, were explored, yet none provided a sufficient resolution to the shortage. Conclusion: The findings underscore an impending exacerbation of the doctor shortage in Gyeongsangnam-do if the existing system is perpetuated. Addressing this issue necessitates not only augmenting the number of medical school students and adapting retirement age policies but also implementing diverse strategies employed successfully in other countries. This study serves as a foundational step in informing evidence-based policies aimed at securing an ample and appropriately distributed doctor workforce for sustainable healthcare delivery.