저수지 제체 월류수위 예측을 위한 Fuzzy Time Series법의적용성 비교 평가

Abstract

An increasing pattern of extreme rainfall recently affected the rural infrastructures with catastrophic damage, especially the overtopping of a fill damembankment in the Republic of Korea. The overtopping was caused by the sudden increase in reservoir water level over the dam crest level, and itwas not easy work to predict a priori because of its non-linear behavior. Fuzzy time series (FTS) is a fuzzy-logic inference procedure and is suitedto apply to non-linear prediction methods such as machine learning. This study used the Wangshin reservoir and Goesan-dam cases, which experiencedovertopping in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Wangshin Reservoir was a typical agricultural fill dam and needed to stack more available data, with onlythe daily storage rate (water level) of 7 years, starting on 2 May 2016. Therefore, we used Goesan-dam data to select appropriate variables and comparethe analysis result, which was stacked with about 17 years of records. The analyses adapted LSTM to compare with FTS. As a result, the reservoirwater level was applied to predict the overtopping water level, and it was shown that the FTS method could predict the actual water levels effectivelyaccording to the result of comparison with LSTM. Then, the FTS method was expected to predict reservoir water level a priori to make appropriatecountermeasures on overtopping events as one of the alternatives.