Trends of forest cover and prospects of Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) to Ethiopia and the downstream countries

Abstract

The need for forest products, agricultural expansion, and dependency on biomass for the household energy source has largely influenced Ethiopia’s forest resources. Consequently, the country lost its forest resources to less than 6% until the millennium. In this study, quantitative and qualitative historical data analysis was employed to understand the socioeconomic benefits of large dam construction to Ethiopia and downstream countries. Moreover, remotely sensed data was also used to analyze the trends of vegetation cover change in the Nile catchment since the commencement of the dam; focusing on areas where there are high settlement and urban areas. It was identified that Ethiopia has one of the lowest electricity consumption per capita in Africa; about 91% of the source of household energy supply depends on fuelwood today and more than 55.7% of the population does not have access to electricity. The normalized difference vegetation index result shows an increment of vegetation area in the Nile catchment and a reduction of no vegetation area from 2011–2021 by 37.1%; which is directly related to the protection of the dam catchment for its sustainability in the last decade. The hydroelectric dam construction has prospects of multi-benefit to Ethiopia and downstream countries either through the direct benefit of hydropower energy production, related socioeconomic values, and reducing risks of destructive flood from Ethiopian highlands. Generally, it explains the reason why to not say ‘No’ to the reservoir as it is an ever more vital tool for fulfilling growing energy demand and supporting ecological stability. © 2024 by author(s).