Influence analysis of central and Eastern Pacific El Ninos to seasonal rainfall patterns over China using the intentional statistical simulations

Abstract

This study simulated regional responses to consistent sea surface temperature (SST) changes in precipitation indices over China to determine their spatial sensitivity to different types of El Nino events. Percentage changes in seasonal precipitation total in wet days were often more significant than those of the maximum 1 day precipitation, maximum consecutive dry and wet days in warming conditions of SST. In addition, percentage changes in warming conditions were often less than those in cooling conditions. Moreover, seasonal and heavy precipitation in China was more sensitive to alterations in the eastern Pacific El Nino than the central Pacific El Nino, regardless of conditions, and was more sensitive to cooling conditions than warming conditions for all precipitation indices. The statistical simulations presented here provide improved forecasting for seasonal and heavy precipitation in China on a regional scale with regard to warming and cooling conditions related to SST changes in the western North Pacific.